College Football Picks: Week 2

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Below are your week 2 picks based upon the ratings. These numbers still have a good chunk of the projections in them, so they may still tend to be on the conservative side. However, I slightly tinkered with how I calculated these this week, and I think I’ve found a method that I’m satisfied with going forward.

Anyway, these are pretty self explanatory. Each team has a projected score, which is adjusted for strength of schedule and home field advantage (except for games played on neutral fields). Each team also has an expected win probability, expressing how often you would expect team A to beat team B. Not all games are listed here, of course, as I am not collecting data on FCS teams.

If you are interested in seeing the projected ratings for each team, click here.

Week 1 Results

  • Head to Head 79.55% Correct
  • Against the Spread- 50% Correct

Overall Head to Head Results

Win Probability Right Wrong % Correct
50%-59.9% 11 8 57.89%
60%-69.9% 11 1 91.67%
70%-79.9% 6 0 100.00%
80%-89.9% 5 0 100.00%
90%-100% 2 0 100.00%
Total 35 9 79.55%

Week 2 Picks

Thursday Proj. Score Win Probability
Florida Atlantic 26 31.10%
East Carolina 39 68.90%
Friday Proj. Score Win Probability
Wake Forest 19 33.13%
Boston College 27 66.87%
UCF 31 60.31%
Florida International 24 39.69%
Saturday Proj. Score Win Probability
Florida 23 36.47%
Miami (Florida) 28 63.53%
Oklahoma State 36 79.53%
UTSA 20 20.47%
Miami (Ohio) 26 27.29%
Kentucky 40 72.71%
South Florida 12 8.07%
Michigan State 41 91.93%
E. Michigan 18 14.14%
Penn State 39 85.86%
Houston 28 29.25%
Temple 42 70.75%
Cincinnati 36 73.56%
Illinois 21 26.44%
Bowling Green 27 58.94%
Kent State 21 41.06%
W. Kentucky 27 35.32%
Tennessee 36 64.68%
Middle Tennessee 20 19.17%
North Carolina 40 80.83%
Army 30 25.96%
Ball State 43 74.04%
San Diego State 20 20.41%
Ohio State 39 79.59%
Oregon 33 69.12%
Virginia 23 30.88%
Toledo 25 37.15%
Missouri 32 62.85%
Buffalo 24 15.69%
Baylor 44 84.31%
Utah State 38 69.99%
Air Force 26 30.01%
South Alabama 17 21.42%
Tulane 32 78.58%
Idaho 17 6.00%
Wyoming 55 94.00%
South Carolina 28 9.65%
Georgia 38 90.35%
Duke 27 43.02%
Memphis 30 56.98%
Southern Miss 15 10.92%
Nebraska 43 89.08%
Syracuse 17 22.58%
Northwestern 27 77.42%
Navy 23 20.81%
Indiana 44 79.19%
Louisiana-Lafayette 26 26.35%
Kansas State 41 73.65%
UAB 15 2.05%
LSU 55 97.95%
Texas 24 43.03%
BYU 29 56.97%
West Virginia 23 18.76%
Oklahoma 46 81.24%
North Texas 30 46.80%
Ohio 32 53.20%
Colorado State 21 30.23%
Tulsa 32 69.77%
Arkansas State 27 45.56%
Auburn 29 54.44%
Notre Dame 24 44.91%
Michigan 25 55.09%
Hawai’i 18 16.20%
Oregon State 41 83.80%
Minnesota 37 68.44%
New Mexico State 27 31.56%
New Mexico 24 28.40%
UTEP 35 71.60%
Washington State 14 19.06%
USC 30 80.94%
Arizona 34 65.06%
UNLV 25 34.94%
San Jose State 19 22.80%
Stanford 32 77.20%
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