2013 College Football Top 25: Week 2

Sports

With week 2 all wrapped up and in the rearview mirror, I give you this week’s college football Top 25 based upon each team’s ratings.

Keep in mind, due the small sample size of only one or two games for each team, these numbers are heavily influenced by their preseason projections. As the weeks go on, the projections will slowly fade away, and the real talent will be all that’s left. Also, because we now have two weeks of data, I have begun calculating the average week-to-week improvement demonstrated by each team. That would be the number that you see under the category labeled “Improve+.” Please note, that “Improve+” is NOT the difference between last weeks numerical ranking and this week’s. “Last Wk” is meant to show you where each team was ranked last week. “Improve+” (and the offensive and defensive variants of it), on the other hand, measures the average week to week improvement demonstrated by each team. An example: Oregon’s “Improve+” is 14, which means, after two weeks, they are averaging 14% of improvement in their “Total+” ranking from week-to-week. Obviously, numbers will get smaller as the weeks go on. My basic aim is to see which teams get stronger as the year goes on and which teams fall off a cliff.

If you would like to know where the other 100 FBS teams fall in the ratings, click here.

Top 25

Rank Team Off+ Def+ Total+ Schedule Win% Last Wk Off+ Improve Def+ Improve Improve+
1 Oregon 147 125 136 92 168 7 16 12 14
2 Alabama 113 138 126 123 168 5 -2 -4 -3
3 South Carolina 131 120 125 128 84 9 15 -5 5
4 Florida State 129 121 125 121 168 2 -4 -4 -4
5 Georgia 150 99 125 132 84 3 0 -9 -4
6 Baylor 136 109 123 86 168 8 6 -2 2
7 Oklahoma State 130 114 122 105 168 1 2 -17 -8
8 LSU 124 117 121 109 168 4 -5 -11 -8
9 Stanford 113 124 119 102 168 18 3 2 3
10 Utah State 124 112 118 119 84 21 6 -1 2
11 Notre Dame 114 121 117 116 84 13 2 -4 -1
12 Arizona 115 119 117 90 168 14 -3 0 -1
13 Washington 114 120 117 116 168 10 -2 -4 -3
14 Georgia Tech 123 110 117 68 168 15 -2 -1 -2
15 Northwestern 118 115 117 108 168 12 4 -8 -2
16 Miami (Florida) 112 120 116 100 168 32 -3 13 5
17 Michigan 114 119 116 104 168 31 8 2 5
18 Texas 125 107 116 102 84 11 0 -5 -2
19 Texas A&M 134 95 114 95 168 16 1 -5 -2
20 Arizona State 109 120 114 75 168 38 4 6 5
21 Wisconsin 114 114 114 68 168 19 -4 0 -2
22 BYU 108 119 114 118 84 24 6 -4 1
23 Virginia Tech 92 134 113 109 84 23 -11 10 -1
24 Louisville 111 115 113 88 168 27 0 2 1
25 USC 89 138 113 101 84 17 -12 6 -3

Noteworthy

  • Oregon finally played a team with a pulse. Kind of. Virginia’s not actually known for their college football program at the moment, but they are better than Nicholls State. Flying across the country and winning 59-10 is a statement. One that moves them up to #1 this week.
  • Alabama did not play this week, but they moved up to #2 and saw their rating actually fall. That is because even on weeks when team’s don’t play, their strength of schedule continues to fluctuate based on who they have played so far. Like I told you last week, Virginia Tech’s offense got a bump from playing Alabama’s defense. Conversely, that made Alabama’s strength of schedule look better after last week. So, this week, the numbers weren’t quite as impressed with Virginia Tech’s pass game against Western Carolina. As a result, Alabama’s strength of schedule and ratings were slightly downgraded this week.
  • Georgia beat South Carolina, but the Gamecocks jump to #3 and Georgia falls to #5 this week. Basically, Georgia’s defense took the hit, while South Carolina’s offense took a jump. I’m not sure what to think about Georgia yet. The offense looks pretty damn amazing, but the defense may be a liability. With South Carolina, though, this number seems too high to me, and I expect their offensive rating to go down, causing them to drop some spots. They are a good team, but I’m just not sure they are a top 5 team.
  • Baylor can definitely score points, but they have yet to actually play anyone. When they get into the Big 12 schedule, it will be interesting to see how the defense looks.
  • Michigan beat Notre Dame, but the numbers still like Notre Dame slightly better. Honestly, I don’t know. It would be interesting to see a rematch in South Bend.
  • BYU pretty much manhandled Texas Saturday night. BYU would rank higher if it weren’t for that week 1 offensive performance against Virginia. If they were underrated after playing in inclement weather in week 1, I would say they had their coming out party in week 2.
  • Arizona State and Wisconsin come in at #20 and #21, respectively, and they play each other in the desert this Saturday night. That is all.
  • After much hand-wringing in the preseason about how a lot of advanced stats weren’t totally sold on this Louisville team, they finally crack the top 25 with their latest pantsing of a terrible team. They have yet to really play anybody worth much, but they have done exactly what you are supposed to with those types of teams; dominate them.

State of Iowa

I’m from Iowa, so every week I’m going to throw in a blurb about the Hawkeyes and the Cyclones, seeing as neither of them are going to sniff the top 25 this season.

  • #72 Iowa– While they did pick up their first win of the season, they did it in less than impressive fashion. Iowa was only up 7-0 at halftime and the offense looked pretty inept for most of the day. Mark Weisman looked as good as you would expect him to against a Missouri State defense. And, really, that was the only consistent bright spot for the offense on the day. Meanwhile, the defense was fine, overall, but had one of their standard big plays over the top for a touchdown. In other words, we pretty much know what we are getting with this Iowa Hawkeye defense; an average to slightly above average unit, who are going to give up a couple of big pass plays per game against competent competition. It’s the offense, though, that I have no idea what to think. After the week 1 loss, I came away with hope that this unit may be capable of turning into something decent as the year goes on. After the week 2 win, though, I come away with a headache.
  • #84 Iowa State– Thanks to a spreadsheet error that thankfully was isolated only to Iowa State’s defense, they were generously awarded the #79 ranking after losing to Northern Iowa at home in week 1. After correcting for that error, they really should have been #93. This week, without playing, they actually move up to #84 because some teams took a fall around them. However, Iowa State still looks bad. Iowa does too, of course, and the Hawkeyes travel to Ames this weekend where both offenses will probably look terrible and disjointed all evening in what looks to be a very derpy affair. But, then again, I guess you never know. I mean, Steele Jantz looked like Seneca-freaking-Wallace against Iowa in Ames two years ago. Thus, nothing’s impossible.
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