College Football Picks: Week 4

Sports

Below are your week 4 picks based upon the ratings.

These are pretty self explanatory. Each team has a projected score, which is adjusted for strength of schedule and home field advantage (except for games played on neutral fields). Each team also has an expected win probability, expressing how often you would expect team A to beat team B. Not all games are listed here, of course, as I am not collecting data on FCS teams.

If you are interested in seeing the projected ratings for each team, click here.

Week 3 Results

  • Head-to-Head 77.78% Correct
  • Against the Spread- 51.11% Correct

Season Head-to-Head Results

Win Probability Correct Wrong % Correct
50%-59.9% 24 16 60.00%
60%-69.9% 29 3 90.63%
70%-79.9% 20 6 76.92%
80%-89.9% 15 1 93.75%
90%-100% 15 0 100.00%
Total 103 26 79.84%

Week 4 Picks

Thursday Proj. Score Win Probability
Clemson 25 41.36%
North Carolina State 30 58.64%
Friday Proj. Score Win Probability
Boise State 29 45.27%
Fresno State 32 54.73%
Saturday Proj. Score Win Probability
Western Michigan 17 24.12%
Iowa 31 75.88%
Florida International 11 2.23%
Louisville 52 97.77%
North Carolina 23 22.03%
Georgia Tech 37 77.97%
Vanderbilt 40 85.93%
Massachusetts 16 14.07%
San Jose State 27 46.63%
Minnesota 28 53.37%
Marshall 11 14.32%
Virginia Tech 30 85.68%
Wake Forest 21 38.12%
Army 29 61.88%
Toledo 36 69.02%
Central Michigan 24 30.98%
Middle Tennessee 19 35.18%
Florida Atlantic 25 64.82%
Louisiana Tech 21 27.47%
Kansas 33 72.53%
North Texas 24 11.20%
Georgia 47 88.80%
Pittsburgh 24 33.09%
Duke 34 66.91%
Tulane 15 17.28%
Syracuse 33 82.72%
Ball State 34 51.26%
Eastern Michigan 33 48.74%
Houston 29 49.21%
Rice 30 50.79%
Tennessee 17 23.41%
Florida 33 76.59%
Michigan State 19 31.54%
Notre Dame 26 68.46%
Purdue 18 19.80%
Wisconsin 36 80.20%
Utah State 18 39.51%
USC 26 60.49%
West Virginia 19 29.71%
Maryland 30 70.29%
Arkansas 22 38.29%
Rutgers 28 61.71%
Kent State 20 11.77%
Penn State 48 88.23%
Louisiana-Monroe 21 10.30%
Baylor 46 89.70%
Cincinnati 41 72.85%
Miami (Ohio) 26 27.15%
Arkansas State 31 52.68%
Memphis 30 47.32%
Louisiana-Lafayette 33 61.71%
Akron 27 38.29%
Colorado State 15 0.51%
Alabama 53 99.49%
Arizona State 20 33.10%
Stanford 31 66.90%
SMU 28 14.39%
Texas A&M 59 85.61%
Texas State 19 24.02%
Texas Tech 34 75.98%
Oregon State 35 59.78%
San Diego State 27 40.22%
Troy 16 7.33%
Mississippi State 50 92.67%
Auburn 22 18.19%
LSU 40 81.81%
Michigan 27 60.67%
Connecticut 20 39.33%
Missouri 29 36.60%
Indiana 39 63.40%
Kansas State 27 25.08%
Texas 42 74.92%
UTSA 31 48.80%
UTEP 34 51.20%
Hawai’i 23 32.34%
Nevada 37 67.66%
Utah 26 36.04%
BYU 35 63.96%
Wyoming 31 43.76%
Air Force 37 56.24%
New Mexico State 16 1.58%
UCLA 64 98.42%
Idaho 10 3.54%
Washington State 39 96.46%
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