College Football Picks: Week 5

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Below are your week 5 picks based upon the ratings.

These are pretty self explanatory. Each team has a projected score, which is adjusted for strength of schedule and home field advantage (except for games played on neutral fields). Each team also has an expected win probability, expressing how often you would expect team A to beat team B. Not all games are listed here, of course, as I am not collecting data on FCS teams.

If you are interested in seeing the projected ratings for each team, click here.

Week 4 Results

  • Head-to-Head 77.27% Correct
  • Against the Spread- 53.49% Correct

Season Results

Head-to-Head

Win Probability Correct Wrong % Correct
50%-59.9% 28 21 57.14%
60%-69.9% 37 8 82.22%
70%-79.9% 28 6 82.35%
80%-89.9% 24 1 96.00%
90%-100% 20 0 100.00%
Total 137 36 79.19%

Against the Spread

  • 85-87-1 (49.42%)

Week 5 Picks

Thursday Proj. Score Win Probability
Iowa State 25 38.30%
Tulsa 32 61.70%
Virginia Tech 18 22.02%
Georgia Tech 22 77.98%
Friday Proj. Score Win Probability
Utah State 34 68.62%
San Jose State 25 31.38%
Middle Tennessee 18 20.31%
BYU 35 79.69%
Saturday Proj. Score Win Probability
Oklahoma State 30 73.80%
West Virginia 18 26.20%
South Carolina 33 50.98%
UCF 32 49.02%
Miami (Florida) 35 83.31%
South Florida 13 16.69%
Miami (Ohio) 18 15.73%
Illinois 42 84.27%
Northern Illinois 31 55.29%
Purdue 27 44.71%
SMU 15 8.59%
TCU 44 91.41%
South Alabama 18 16.50%
Tennessee 39 83.50%
East Carolina 16 12.19%
North Carolina 40 87.81%
Virginia 25 25.42%
Pittsburgh 42 74.58%
Navy 38 61.86%
Western Kentucky 31 38.14%
Akron 23 23.24%
Bowling Green 40 76.76%
Troy 26 16.28%
Duke 50 83.72%
Colorado 25 24.09%
Oregon State 45 75.91%
Toledo 33 53.94%
Ball State 31 46.06%
Iowa 25 40.40%
Minnesota 30 59.60%
Wake Forest 14 13.35%
Clemson 35 86.65%
LSU 34 18.98%
Georgia 45 81.02%
Florida State 35 77.33%
Boston College 22 22.67%
Oklahoma 24 35.84%
Notre Dame 31 64.16%
UTEP 24 17.63%
Colorado State 43 82.37%
Central Michigan 14 10.52%
North Carolina State 38 89.48%
Connecticut 20 35.61%
Buffalo 29 64.39%
Army 22 34.94%
Louisiana Tech 26 65.06%
Houston 33 46.41%
UTSA 36 53.59%
Temple 29 64.71%
Idaho 23 35.29%
Mississippi 23 18.99%
Alabama 35 81.01%
Arizona 21 22.34%
Washington 33 77.66%
Texas A&M 32 46.17%
Arkansas 37 53.83%
Florida 26 68.33%
Kentucky 15 31.67%
Florida Atlantic 18 21.51%
Rice 35 78.49%
Wyoming 23 40.71%
Texas State 27 59.29%
Tulane 20 32.38%
Louisiana-Monroe 30 67.62%
Kent State 22 31.06%
Western Michigan 27 68.94%
Arkansas State 23 19.47%
Missouri 45 80.53%
UAB 25 20.25%
Vanderbilt 46 79.75%
Wisconsin 27 26.33%
Ohio State 39 73.67%
San Diego State 27 55.14%
New Mexico State 26 44.86%
UNLV 33 48.79%
New Mexico 37 51.21%
Air Force 33 26.32%
Nevada 50 73.68%
Stanford 20 49.35%
Washington State 21 50.65%
Southern Mississippi 11 6.37%
Boise State 42 93.63%
California 15 0.00%
Oregon 77 100.00%
USC 19 31.02%
Arizona State 21 68.98%
Sunday Proj. Score Win Probability
Fresno State 27 60.55%
Hawai’i 17 39.45%
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