College Football Picks: Bowl Games

Sports

Below are your bowl picks based on the ratings.

These are pretty self explanatory. Each team has a projected score, which is adjusted for strength of schedule and home field advantage (except for games played on neutral fields). Each team also has an expected win probability, expressing how often you would expect team A to beat team B. Not all games are listed here, of course, as I am not collecting data on FCS teams.

If you are interested in seeing the projected ratings for each team, click here.

Regular Season Results

Picks

Above are the week-by-week results for the projections. Put an asterisk next to week 16, as there was only one game that weekend (Army vs. Navy).

Straight Up

Win Probability Correct Wrong % Correct
50%-59.9% 92 79 53.80%
60%-69.9% 110 41 72.85%
70%-79.9% 107 33 76.43%
80%-89.9% 98 13 88.29%
90%-100% 118 10 92.19%
Total 525 176 74.89%

Against the Spread

  • 349-346-6 (50.22%)

Bowl picks after the jump.

Bowl Picks

December 21st    
New Mexico Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Washington State 37 71.75%
Colorado State 23 28.25%
Las Vegas Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Fresno State 21 17.11%
USC 42 82.89%
Idaho Potato Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Buffalo 30 60.13%
San Diego State 25 39.87%
New Orleans Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Tulane 23 53.38%
Louisiana-Lafayette 22 46.62%
December 23rd    
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
East Carolina 37 70.64%
Ohio 23 29.36%
December 24th    
Hawai’I Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Boise State 30 45.36%
Oregon State 33 54.64%
December 26th    
Little Caesars Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Pittsburgh 28 46.61%
Bowling Green 30 53.39%
Poinsettia Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Utah State 30 54.10%
Northern Illinois 26 45.90%
December 27th    
Fight Hunger Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
BYU 23 20.67%
Washington 30 79.33%
Military Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Marshall 30 60.69%
Maryland 24 39.31%
Texas Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Syracuse 24 46.48%
Minnesota 26 53.52%
December 28th    
Pinstripe Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Rutgers 18 16.95%
Notre Dame 39 83.05%
Belk Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Cincinnati 24 38.73%
North Carolina 30 61.27%
Russell Athletic Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Miami (Florida) 24 45.69%
Louisville 28 54.31%
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Michigan 25 46.82%
Kansas State 26 53.18%
December 30th    
Armed Forces Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Middle Tennessee 30 36.44%
Navy 39 63.56%
Music City Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Mississippi 30 52.32%
Georgia Tech 29 47.68%
Alamo Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Oregon 37 97.43%
Texas 22 2.57%
Holiday Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Arizona State 51 99.03%
Texas Tech 17 0.97%
December 31st    
Advocare V100 Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Arizona 37 67.69%
Boston College 27 32.31%
Sun Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Virginia Tech 17 9.58%
UCLA 22 90.42%
Liberty Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Rice 20 20.91%
Mississippi State 37 79.09%
Chick-fil-A Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Duke 32 33.78%
Texas A&M 39 66.22%
January 1st    
Gator Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Nebraska 26 17.00%
Georgia 44 83.00%
Heart of Dallas Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
UNLV 25 39.75%
North Texas 30 60.25%
Outback Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Iowa 24 25.67%
LSU 30 74.33%
Capital One Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Wisconsin 28 54.23%
South Carolina 26 45.77%
Rose Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Stanford 23 95.34%
Michigan State 14 4.66%
Fiesta Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
UCF 22 5.99%
Baylor 41 94.01%
January 2nd    
Sugar Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Oklahoma 19 6.00%
Alabama 35 94.00%
January 3rd    
Cotton Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Okahoma State 28 55.02%
Missouri 23 44.98%
Orange Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Clemson 28 18.42%
Ohio State 34 81.58%
January 4th    
BBVA Compass Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Vanderbilt 22 46.58%
Houston 24 53.42%
GoDaddy Bowl Proj. Score Win Probability
Aarkansas State 29 35.87%
Ball State 38 64.13%
National Championship Proj. Score Win Probability
Florida State 39 92.21%
Auburn 20 7.79%
*Bonus*
Since it’s bowl season and a lot of people participate in the bowl pick ’em contests that use confidence points to rank the bowls, I have ordered the bowl games from the ones the numbers are the most confident about to the ones the numbers are the least confident about. I don’t recommend gambling with these (I just do these for fun), but if you choose to do so, you do so at your own risk.
Rank Bowl Win Probability
1 Holiday Bowl 99.03%
2 Alamo Bowl 97.43%
3 Rose Bowl 95.34%
4 Fiesta Bowl 94.01%
5 Sugar Bowl 94.00%
6 National Championship 92.21%
7 Sun Bowl 90.42%
8 Pinstripe Bowl 83.05%
9 Gator Bowl 83.00%
10 Las Vegas Bowl 82.89%
11 Orange Bowl 81.58%
12 Fight Hunger Bowl 79.33%
13 Liberty Bowl 79.09%
14 Outback Bowl 74.33%
15 New Mexico Bowl 71.75%
16 Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl 70.64%
17 Advocare V100 Bowl 67.69%
18 Chick-fil-A Bowl 66.22%
19 GoDaddy Bowl 64.13%
20 Armed Forces Bowl 63.56%
21 Belk Bowl 61.27%
22 Military Bowl 60.69%
23 Heart of Dallas Bowl 60.25%
24 Idaho Potato Bowl 60.13%
25 Cotton Bowl 55.02%
26 Hawai’i Bowl 54.64%
27 Russell Athletic Bowl 54.31%
28 Capital One Bowl 54.23%
29 Poinsettia Bowl 54.10%
30 Texas Bowl 53.52%
31 BBVA Compass Bowl 53.42%
32 Little Caesars Bowl 53.39%
33 New Orleans Bowl 53.38%
34 Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl 53.18%
35 Music City Bowl 52.32%
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