2014 College Football Picks: Week 3

Sports

Below are the picks for week 3.

These are pretty self explanatory. Each team has a projected score, which is adjusted for strength of schedule and home field advantage (except for games played on neutral fields). Each team also has an expected win probability, expressing how often you would expect team A to beat team B. Not all games are listed here, of course, as I am not collecting data on FCS teams.

If you are interested in seeing the projected ratings for each team, click here.

Week 2 Results

Last week’s picks can be found here.

  • Straight Up– 37-8, 82.22%
  • Against the Spread– 23-21-1, 52.27%

Season Results

Straight Up

Win Probability Correct Wrong % Correct
50%-59.9% 14 7 66.67%
60%-69.9% 10 5 66.67%
70%-79.9% 16 4 80.00%
80%-89.9% 17 3 85.00%
90%-100% 7 0 100.00%
Total 64 19 77.11%

Against the Spread

48-34-1 (58.54%)

Week 3 picks after the jump.

Week 3 Picks

Thursday Proj. Score Win Probability
North Texas 25 58.45%
Louisiana Tech 23 41.55%
BYU 26 75.57%
Houston 13 24.43%
Friday Proj. Score Win Probability
Cincinnati 44 71.80%
Toledo 25 28.20%
Buffalo 19 12.68%
Baylor 57 87.32%
Saturday Proj. Score Win Probability
Middle Tennessee 35 54.89%
Western Kentucky 34 45.11%
Ohio State 40 88.49%
Kent State 12 11.51%
Missouri 31 65.13%
UCF 27 34.87%
Bowling Green 36 58.71%
Indiana 34 41.29%
Ohio 17 37.00%
Marshall 28 63.00%
Connecticut 17 35.17%
Boise State 28 64.83%
Virginia Tech 34 72.52%
East Carolina 18 27.48%
Georgia Tech 48 76.16%
Georgia Southern 27 23.84%
Florida International 17 25.60%
Pittsburgh 35 74.40%
Central Michigan 27 60.70%
Syracuse 22 39.30%
Maryland 25 66.85%
West Virginia 16 33.15%
Vanderbilt 32 80.06%
Massachusetts 16 19.94%
Virginia 20 42.13%
Louisville 23 57.87%
Oregon 54 98.31%
Wyoming 13 1.69%
Georgia State 26 42.06%
Air Force 30 57.94%
South Carolina 29.54 55.53%
Georgia 29.06 44.47%
Duke 41 86.06%
Kansas 14 13.94%
Michigan 50 95.21%
Miami (Ohio) 10 4.79%
Miami (Florida) 33 77.53%
Arkansas State 16 22.47%
South Florida 24 57.38%
North Carolina State 23 42.62%
Texas Tech 35 38.32%
Arkansas 46 61.68%
Iowa 30 69.16%
Iowa State 17 30.84%
Mississippi 41 86.17%
Louisiana-Lafayette 14 13.83%
Washington 37 69.89%
Illinois 25 30.11%
South Alabama 20 36.13%
Mississippi State 32 63.87%
TCU 33 80.33%
Minnesota 14 19.67%
Stanford 54 93.37%
Army 13 6.63%
Idaho 32 69.53%
Western Michigan 26 30.47%
Alabama 57 98.75%
Southern Mississippi 6 1.25%
Old Dominion 36 77.04%
Eastern Michigan 25 22.96%
LSU 48 97.23%
Louisiana-Monroe 9 2.77%
UNLV 21 29.64%
Northern Illinois 37 70.36%
Oklahoma State 31 73.75%
UTSA 20 26.25%
Utah State 20 66.05%
Wake Forest 12 33.95%
Florida Atlantic 21.33 53.60%
Tulsa 20.68 46.40%
Purdue* 13 7.14%
Notre Dame 53 92.86%
Florida 24 74.14%
Kentucky 11 25.86%
Oklahoma 39 89.18%
Tennessee 12 10.82%
Texas* 19 34.85%
UCLA 26 65.15%
Boston College 16 27.83%
USC 30 72.17%
Rutgers 22 42.43%
Penn State 29 57.57%
UTEP 37 74.70%
New Mexico State 25 25.30%
Texas State 30 49.59%
Navy 32 50.41%
Texas A&M 62 95.31%
Rice 16 4.69%
Colorado 31 30.45%
Arizona State 50 69.55%
Fresno State 27 40.83%
Nebraska 36 59.17%
Arizona 36 79.16%
Nevada 17 20.84%
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