2014 College Football Picks: Week 4

Sports

Below are the picks for week 4.

These are pretty self explanatory. Each team has a projected score, which is adjusted for strength of schedule and home field advantage (except for games played on neutral fields). Each team also has an expected win probability, expressing how often you would expect team A to beat team B. Not all games are listed here, of course, as I am not collecting data on FCS teams.

If you are interested in seeing the projected ratings for each team, click here.

Week 3 Results

Last week’s picks can be found here.

  • Straight Up- 42-9, 82.35%
  • Against the Spread- 27-23-1, 54.00%

Season Results

Straight Up

Win Probability Correct Wrong % Correct
50%-59.9% 22 10 68.75%
60%-69.9% 19 9 67.86%
70%-79.9% 27 6 81.82%
80%-89.9% 24 3 88.89%
90%-100% 14 0 100.00%
Total 106 28 79.10%

Against the Spread

75-57-2 (56.82%)

Week 4 picks after the jump.

Week 4 Picks

Thursday Projected Score Win Probability
Kansas State 34.45 50.86%
Auburn 33.98 49.14%
Friday Projected Score Win Probability
South Florida 22 60.55%
Connecticut 16 39.45%
Saturday Projected Score Win Probability
Michigan State 52 97.94%
Eastern Michigan 9 2.06%
Wisconsin 48 86.35%
Bowling Green 18 13.65%
Pittsburgh 29 76.10%
Iowa 16 23.90%
Rice 34 70.09%
Old Dominion 24 29.91%
Virginia Tech 37 69.32%
Georgia Tech 25 30.68%
Georgia 73 98.37%
Troy 14 1.63%
Syracuse 22 56.86%
Maryland 17 43.14%
Duke 41 84.71%
Tulane 16 15.29%
Akron 21 40.90%
Marshall 29 59.10%
Colorado 29 51.43%
Hawai’i 27 48.57%
SMU 13 9.54%
Texas A&M 46 90.46%
Alabama 27 90.07%
Florida 8 9.93%
East Carolina 34 65.19%
North Carolina 26 34.81%
Florida International 16 23.15%
Louisville 37 76.85%
BYU 24 75.09%
Virginia 11 24.91%
Wake Forest 25 70.62%
Army 20 29.38%
Kansas 19 42.73%
Central Michigan 25 57.27%
Michigan 32 59.74%
Utah 27 40.26%
Navy 38 73.04%
Rutgers 22 26.96%
Missouri 50 88.12%
Indiana 22 11.88%
Illinois 41 74.85%
Texas State 22 25.15%
Minnesota 39 81.00%
San Jose State 18 19.00%
Penn State 30 82.75%
Massachusetts 11 17.25%
Wyoming 31 67.68%
Florida Atlantic 21 32.32%
Washington 58 95.63%
Georgia State 18 4.37%
LSU 26 85.44%
Mississippi State 14 14.56%
Toledo 40 72.39%
Ball State 22 27.61%
Ohio 28 87.19%
Idaho 18 12.81%
Arkansas 46 84.24%
Northern Illinois 27 15.76%
Cincinnati 52 94.55%
Miami (Ohio) 10 5.45%
Memphis 34 66.30%
Middle Tennessee 24 33.70%
Arkansas State 26 68.03%
Utah State 17 31.97%
Southern Mississippi 24 46.27%
Appalachian State 25 53.73%
West Virginia 18 40.22%
Oklahoma 25 59.78%
Vanderbilt 22 27.76%
South Carolina 39 72.24%
South Alabama 26 36.09%
Georgia Southern 40 63.91%
Florida State 35 73.75%
Clemson 23 26.25%
Houston 37 85.60%
UNLV 14 14.40%
Nebraska 31 72.64%
Miami (Florida) 20 27.36%
New Mexico State 39 50.78%
New Mexico 38 49.22%
Arizona 41 79.99%
California 20 20.01%
Washington State 23 15.72%
Oregon 46 84.28%
Oregon State 37 64.46%
San Diego State 28 35.54%
Boise State 41 76.87%
Louisiana-Lafayette 21 23.13%
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