College football is back! Woo!
Per usual, the college football picks for week 1 are below.
These are pretty self-explanatory. Each team has a projected score, which is adjusted for strength of schedule and home field advantage (except for games played on neutral fields). Each team also has an expected win probability, expressing how often you would expect team A to beat team B. Not all games are listed here, of course, as I am not collecting data on FCS teams.
Additionally, since no games have actually been played yet, remember these are made up entirely of preseason projections. The projections will slowly fade out as the season goes on.
If you are interested in seeing the ratings for each team, click here.
Last Season’s Results
|Win Probability||Correct||Wrong||% Correct|
Against the Spread
Week 1 picks after the jump.
Week 1 Picks
Update: New this season, I will also be including what I call the “Game Watchability Rating” for each game. Essentially, it is a number that is supposed to tell you which games should be the most entertaining to watch. It takes into account three variables. First, because most people love to watch two highly-ranked teams play each other, it takes into account the THOR+ rankings for each of the teams playing. That means two higher ranked teams playing are likely going to have a bigger watchability rating than two lower ranked teams.
Second, because people generally love to watch (at least the end of) close games, it takes into account the win probability of each game. A game that is closer to 50/50 in the win probability column will have a higher watchability rating than a game in which the win probability is 80/20. This allows you to at least know which games you should potentially tune into the ending of.
Third, it takes into account the total amount of points that are projected to be scored in a game. While some people love low-scoring defensive struggles, most people prefer to watch two teams that put a lot of points on the board. The watchability rating also distinguishes between games in which the score should be high because one team scores 50 and the other scores 10, and games in which both teams score 30-40 points. Nobody wants to watch blowouts unless it’s their team doing the blowing out.
Finally, the rating should be read like all other ratings on this site. 100 = Average. Above 100 is above average, while below 100 is below average. So, the higher the number, the better the game should be. The lower the number, the less likely you should be to tune into that game unless your team is playing.
Now, onto the picks!
Note: A * next to a game indicates it is being played on a neutral field.
|September 3||Game Watchability Rating||Win Probability||Projected Score|
|September 4||Game Watchability Rating||Win Probability||Projected Score+|
|September 5||Game Watchability Rating||Win Probability||Projected Score+|
|North Carolina State||55||93%||49|
|New Mexico State||8%||10|
|September 6||Game Watchability Rating||Win Probability||Projected Score+|
|September 7||Game Watchability Rating||Win Probability||Projected Score+|