2015 College Football Picks: Week 3

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Below you will find the college football picks for week 3.

These are pretty self-explanatory. Each team has a projected score, which is adjusted for strength of schedule and home field advantage (except for games played on neutral fields). Each team also has an expected win probability, expressing how often you would expect team A to beat team B. Not all games are listed here, of course, as I am not collecting data on FCS teams.

Additionally, since we are still early in the season and very few games have actually been played, remember these are made up mostly of preseason projections. The projections will slowly fade out as the season goes on.

If you are interested in seeing the ratings for each team, click here.

If you want to see last week’s picks, click here.

Week 2 Results

  • Straight Up: 38-13 (74.5%)
  • Against the Spread: 23-25-3 (47.9%)
  • Over/Under: 29-22 (56.9%)

Season Results

Straight Up

Win Probability Correct Wrong % Correct
50%-59.9% 13 5 72.2%
60%-69.9% 14 3 82.4%
70%-79.9% 12 7 63.2%
80%-89.9% 14 2 87.5%
90%-100% 19 1 95.0%
Total 72 18 80.0%

Against the Spread

44-41-5 (51.8%)

Over/Under

48-42 (53.3%)

Week 3 picks after the jump.

Remember, the GWR or “Game Watch Rating” is supposed to tell you whether or not a game should be worth watching. If you need a reminder on how to interpret or what the number takes into account, please go back and see the picks from week 1.

Now, the picks!

September 17 GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Louisville 159 55% 26
Clemson 45% 25
September 18 GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Boston Collge 157 54% 24
Florida State 46% 20
Arizona State 62 88% 53
New Mexico 12% 22
September 19 GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Maryland 142 61% 32
South Florida 39% 26
Michigan 36 93% 44
UNLV 7% 10
Michigan State 73 87% 52
Air Force 13% 21
Minnesota 49 92% 41
Kent State 8% 13
Florida Atlantic 148 54% 34
Buffalo 46% 33
Texas A&M 44 94% 56
Nevada 6% 17
North Carolina 162 59% 31
Illinois 41% 29
Missouri 58 89% 34
Connecticut 11% 10
Army 136 45% 25
Wake Forest 55% 27
Oklahoma 40 93% 57
Tulsa 7% 17
Syracuse 104 74% 29
Central Michigan 26% 16
Duke 136 65% 19
Northwestern 35% 13
Oregon 36 94% 61
Georgia State 6% 19
North Texas 146 57% 34
Rice 43% 33
Massachusetts 89 26% 20
Temple 74% 32
Eastern Michigan 144 48% 37
Ball State 52% 41
Bowling Green 140 42% 36
Memphis 58% 41
Kansas State 102 81% 42
Louisiana Tech 19% 19
Wisconsin 44 93% 60
Troy 7% 20
Ohio State 71 93% 48
Northern Illinois 7% 20
Miami (Ohio) 109 36% 24
Cincinnati 64% 35
Navy 124 70% 42
East Carolina 30% 27
Oklahoma State 51 90% 39
UTSA 10% 12
Purdue 149 46% 24
Virginia Tech 54% 27
Notre Dame 167 55% 36
Georgia Tech 45% 29
Miami (Florida) 137 69% 37
Nebraska 31% 25
LSU 119 79% 35
Auburn 21% 19
Indiana 152 48% 38
Western Kentucky 52% 40
Washington 117 73% 28
Utah State 27% 17
Georgia 93 88% 40
South Carolina 12% 20
Middle Tennessee 80 80% 41
Charlotte 20% 16
Texas State 107 73% 45
Southern Mississippi 27% 27
Arkansas 116 75% 49
Texas Tech 25% 27
Old Dominion 128 37% 36
North Carolina State 63% 41
Colorado State 100 77% 41
Colorado 23% 22
Kentucky 146 62% 32
Florida 38% 25
Texas 154 54% 35
California 46% 29
Penn State 115 71% 33
Rutgers 29% 20
New Mexico State 95 85% 43
UTEP 15% 29
San Diego State 95 78% 32
South Alabama 22% 19
Iowa 139 65% 36
Pittsburgh 35% 26
USC 110 86% 30
Stanford 14% 18
Oregon State 124 68% 37
San Jose State 32% 26
TCU 23 96% 58
SMU 4% 13
Toledo 132 66% 34
Iowa State 34% 23
Washington State 45 98% 55
Wyoming 2% 21
Alabama 148 71% 31
Mississippi 29% 24
UCLA 115 76% 37
BYU 24% 19
Fresno State 92 28% 21
Utah 72% 36
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