2015 College Football Picks: Week 4

Sports

Below you will find the college football picks for week 4.

These are pretty self-explanatory. Each team has a projected score, which is adjusted for strength of schedule and home field advantage (except for games played on neutral fields). Each team also has an expected win probability, expressing how often you would expect team A to beat team B. Not all games are listed here, of course, as I am not collecting data on FCS teams.

Additionally, since we are still early in the season and very few games have actually been played, remember these are still influenced by preseason projections. The projections will fade out once each team has played 5 games.

If you are interested in seeing the ratings for each team, click here.

If you want to see last week’s picks, click here.

Week 3 Results

  • Straight Up: 37-15 (71.2%)
  • Against the Spread: 18-31-3 (36.7%)
  • Over/Under: 30-22 (57.7%)

Season Results

Straight Up

Win Probability Correct Wrong % Correct
50%-59.9% 19 11 63.3%
60%-69.9% 21 5 80.8%
70%-79.9% 20 12 62.5%
80%-89.9% 20 4 83.3%
90%-100% 29 1 96.7%
Total 109 33 76.8%

Against the Spread

62-72-8 (46.3%)

Over/Under

78-64 (54.9%)

Week 4 picks after the jump.

Remember, the GWR or “Game Watch Rating” is supposed to tell you whether or not a game should be worth watching. If you need a reminder on how to interpret or what the number takes into account, please go back and see the picks from week 1.

Now, the picks!

September 24 GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Memphis 120 69% 43
Cincinnati 31% 30
September 25 GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Virginia 118 33% 22
Boise State 67% 33
Oregon State 89 25% 19
Stanford 75% 37
September 26 GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Arizona 164 48% 25
UCLA 52% 29
Arizona State 133 31% 26
USC 69% 35
Oregon 162 55% 32
Utah 45% 31
West Virginia 90 80% 40
Maryland 20% 19
East Carolina 141 43% 27
Virginia Tech 57% 31
Arkansas 154 43% 30
Texas A&M 57% 34
Auburn 169 49% 29
Mississippi State 51% 31
Kentucky 148 46% 19
Missouri 54% 22
Connecticut 127 40% 20
Navy 60% 27
Purdue 157 57% 37
Bowling Green 43% 34
South Carolina 107 71% 29
UCF 29% 16
Syracuse 92 21% 19
LSU 79% 36
Duke 142 36% 25
Georgia Tech 64% 27
Rutgers 93 78% 41
Kansas 22% 24
Michigan 140 64% 30
BYU 36% 20
Michigan State 66 85% 46
Central Michigan 15% 18
Nebraska 67 85% 52
Southern Mississippi 15% 24
Wake Forest 116 68% 30
Indiana 32% 22
Boston College 130 66% 25
Northern Illinois 34% 16
Louisiana Tech 102 75% 37
Florida International 25% 20
Wyoming 84 18% 26
New Mexico 82% 45
Penn State 77 81% 30
San Diego State 19% 12
Minnesota 145 59% 23
Ohio 41% 19
Baylor 43 92% 68
Rice 8% 28
Iowa 64 85% 41
North Texas 15% 16
Ohio State 60 88% 51
Western Michigan 12% 19
Texas 157 46% 28
Oklahoma State 54% 32
Florida 165 54% 28
Tennessee 46% 24
Western Kentucky 84 78% 44
Miami (Ohio) 22% 22
Buffalo 152 52% 31
Nevada 48% 29
Old Dominion 123 36% 33
Appalachian State 64% 39
Kent State 106 34% 19
Marshall 66% 30
Notre Dame 46 91% 51
Massachusetts 9% 16
Alabama 28 95% 57
Louisiana-Monroe 5% 15
Illinois 112 71% 39
Middle Tennessee 29% 24
Texas Tech 172 49% 38
TCU 51% 44
Washington 143 65% 37
California 35% 25
Eastern Michigan 130 40% 31
Army 60% 38
Mississippi 64 95% 41
Vanderbilt 5% 15
Charlotte 106 27% 22
Florida Atlantic 73% 32
UTSA 87 26% 19
Colorado State 74% 34
Louisiana-Lafayette 146 56% 33
Akron 44% 27
Toledo 135 64% 38
Arkansas State 36% 28
Houston 99 76% 51
Texas State 24% 34
Wisconsin 69 86% 42
Hawai’i 14% 15
South Alabama 97 29% 25
North Carolina State 71% 40
Northwestern 56 87% 34
Ball State 13% 12
Idaho 62 11% 27
Georgia Southern 89% 54
San Jose State 146 58% 35
Fresno State 42% 31
Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s