2015 College Football Picks: Week 5

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Below you will find the college football picks for week 5.

These are pretty self-explanatory. Each team has a projected score, which is adjusted for strength of schedule and home field advantage (except for games played on neutral fields). Each team also has an expected win probability, expressing how often you would expect team A to beat team B. Not all games are listed here, of course, as I am not collecting data on FCS teams.

Additionally, since we are still early in the season and not many games have actually been played, remember these are still influenced by preseason projections. The projections will fade out once each team has played 5 games.

If you are interested in seeing the ratings for each team, click here.

If you want to see last week’s picks, click here.

Week 4 Results

  • Straight Up: 43-9 (82.7%)
  • Against the Spread: 30-20-2 (60%)
  • Over/Under: 25-26-1 (49%)

Season Results

Straight Up

Win Probability Correct Wrong % Correct
50%-59.9% 27 17 61.4%
60%-69.9% 31 8 79.5%
70%-79.9% 30 12 71.4%
80%-89.9% 31 4 88.6%
90%-100% 33 1 97.1%
Total 152 42 78.4%

Against the Spread

92-92-10 (50%)

Over/Under

104-89-1 (53.9%)

Week 5 picks after the jump.

Remember, the GWR or “Game Watch Rating” is supposed to tell you whether or not a game should be worth watching. If you need a reminder on how to interpret or what the number takes into account, please go back and see the picks from week 1.

Now, the picks!

October 1 GWR Win Probability Projected Score+
Cincinnati 100 32% 28
Miami (Florida) 68% 40
October 2 GWR Win Probability Projected Score+
Charlotte 41 12% 11
Temple 88% 32
South Florida 132 42% 30
Memphis 58% 35
BYU 84 75% 30
Connecticut 25% 15
October 3 GWR Win Probability Projected Score+
Massachusetts 134 44% 25
Florida International 56% 27
Northwestern 114 67% 17
Minnesota 33% 9
Wisconsin 147 62% 28
Iowa 38% 20
Auburn 103 71% 38
San Jose State 29% 24
Florida 134 32% 25
Mississippi 68% 31
Georgia 147 68% 33
Alabama 32% 26
LSU 0 99% 80
Eastern Michigan 1% 18
Missouri 116 66% 25
South Carolina 34% 16
Tennessee 121 70% 40
Arkansas 30% 28
Texas A&M 170 49% 25
Mississippi State 51% 29
Duke 146 61% 18
Boston College 39% 14
Clemson 161 57% 30
Notre Dame 43% 24
Wake Forest 91 29% 15
Florida State 71% 27
Georgia Tech 129 72% 42
North Carolina 28% 31
North Carolina State 165 56% 30
Louisville 44% 28
Virginia Tech 152 47% 31
Pittsburgh 53% 34
Stanford 101 76% 46
Arizona 24% 26
UCLA 76 83% 38
Arizona State 17% 17
Colorado 153 57% 36
Oregon 43% 33
California 83 78% 45
Washington State 22% 25
Penn State 91 74% 36
Army 26% 21
Iowa State 74 81% 36
Kansas 19% 18
Oklahoma 165 54% 26
West Virginia 46% 24
Oklahoma State 161 56% 23
Kansas State 44% 21
TCU 131 67% 44
Texas 33% 32
Texas Tech 171 45% 50
Baylor 55% 54
Illinois 157 53% 29
Nebraska 47% 27
Indiana 67 22% 19
Ohio State 78% 39
SMU 119 37% 36
East Carolina 63% 45
Tulane 138 53% 22
UCF 47% 18
Tulsa 130 41% 35
Houston 59% 39
Boise State 69 81% 34
Hawai’i 19% 14
Utah State 149 55% 24
Colorado State 45% 21
Troy 81 81% 44
South Alabama 19% 25
Michigan State 78 79% 42
Purdue 21% 21
Akron 154 52% 27
Ohio 48% 26
Ball State 106 36% 22
Toledo 64% 31
Central Michigan 90 31% 18
Northern Illinois 69% 31
Appalachian State 7 99% 61
Wyoming 1% 17
Buffalo 151 47% 32
Bowling Green 53% 33
Kent State 127 63% 26
Miami (Ohio) 37% 22
Navy 125 67% 42
Air Force 33% 30
Marshall 72 82% 42
Old Dominion 18% 23
Rice 62 20% 34
Western Kentucky 80% 60
Southern Mississippi 53 86% 48
North Texas 14% 20
Middle Tennessee 145 59% 25
Vanderbilt 41% 20
Louisiana Tech 62 81% 51
Louisiana-Lafayette 19% 26
Nevada 151 49% 30
UNLV 51% 31
Arkansas State 29 99% 54
Idaho 1% 21
Louisiana-Monroe 153 49% 31.7
Georgia Southern 51% 32.4
New Mexico 82 82% 51
New Mexico State 18% 31
UTEP 95 17% 31
UTSA 83% 40
Maryland 76 25% 17
Michigan 75% 36
San Diego State 144 57% 28
Fresno State 43% 27
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