2015 College Football Picks: Week 10

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Below you will find the college football picks for week 10.

These are pretty self-explanatory. Each team has a projected score, which is adjusted for strength of schedule and home field advantage (except for games played on neutral fields). Each team also has an expected win probability, expressing how often you would expect team A to beat team B. Not all games are listed here, of course, as I am not collecting data on FCS teams.

If you are interested in seeing the ratings for each team, click here.

If you want to see last week’s picks, click here.

Week 9 Results

  • Straight Up: 38-12 (76%)
  • Against the Spread: 24-27-1 (47.1%)
  • Over/Under: 22-30 (42.3%)

Season Results

Straight Up

Win Probability Correct Wrong % Correct
50%-59.9% 73 43 62.9%
60%-69.9% 83 30 73.5%
70%-79.9% 79 22 78.2%
80%-89.9% 68 12 85.0%
90%-100% 54 4 93.1%
Total 357 111 76.3%

Against the Spread

230-225-15 (50.5%)

Over/Under

235-232-3 (50.3%)

Week 10 picks after the jump.

Remember, the GWR or “Game Watch Rating” is supposed to tell you whether or not a game should be worth watching. If you need a reminder on how to interpret or what the number takes into account, please go back and see the picks from week 1.

Now, the picks!

November 3 GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Toledo 121 68% 29
Northern Illinois 32% 18
November 4 GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Bowling Green 95 73% 39
Ohio 27% 23
November 5 GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Kent State 131 45% 18
Buffalo 55% 22
Western Michigan 96 73% 45
Ball State 27% 27
Appalachian State 88 76% 42
Arkansas State 24% 24
Kansas State 122 29% 36
Baylor 71% 45
Missouri 101 27% 11
Mississippi State 73% 18
Fresno State 150 49.7% 30
Nevada 50.3% 31
November 6 GWR Win Probability Projected Score
UTEP 117 32% 35
Rice 68% 45
SMU 60 21% 22
Temple 79% 44
San Jose State 94 30% 28
BYU 70% 43
November 7 GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Texas State 91 80% 56
New Mexico State 20% 36
Georgia State 150 55% 34
Louisiana-Lafayette 45% 33
South Alabama 86 86% 42
Idaho 14% 28
Middle Tennessee 154 52% 26
Marshall 48% 25
Miami (Ohio) 135 61% 35
Eastern Michigan 39% 32
Massachusetts 142 55% 28
Akron 45% 25
East Carolina 135 43% 28
South Florida 57% 33
Houston 113 71% 40
Cincinnati 29% 26
Memphis 165 56% 36
Navy 44% 34
Tulane 134 44% 23
Connecticut 56% 25
Tulsa 75 81% 40
UCF 19% 19
Wyoming 108 33% 28
Colorado State 67% 38
Michigan 45 87% 43
Rutgers 13% 14
Nebraska 166 52% 33
Michigan State 48% 32
Northwestern 152 49% 16.2
Penn State 51% 16.4
West Virginia 154 60% 47
Texas Tech 40% 37
Indiana 79 26% 20
Iowa 74% 39
Boston College 138 61% 26
North Carolina State 39% 16
Clemson 135 71% 30
Florida State 29% 23
North Carolina 122 74% 28
Duke 26% 19
Louisville 132 63% 31
Syracuse 37% 23
Miami (Florida) 121 65% 34
Virginia 35% 25
Pittsburgh 138 38% 28
Notre Dame 62% 33
USC 52 89% 57
Arizona 11% 25
Washington State 151 58% 37
Arizona State 42% 32
Oregon State 73 25% 19
UCLA 75% 36
Colorado 62 19% 21
Stanford 81% 43
Washington 120 75% 31
Utah 25% 19
Oregon 150 43% 36
California 57% 43
Air Force 107 70% 43
Army 30% 29
Oklahoma 59 90% 47
Iowa State 10% 20
Oklahoma State 175 49% 35
TCU 51% 36
Alabama 163 55% 33
LSU 45% 26
Florida 66 85% 26
Vanderbilt 15% 9
Georgia 89 75% 35
Kentucky 25% 19
Mississippi 119 75% 41
Arkansas 25% 24
Tennessee 62 84% 41
South Carolina 16% 18
Texas A&M 125 67% 33
Auburn 33% 22
Purdue 149 56% 26
Illinois 44% 23
Florida International 51 91% 36
Charlotte 9% 12
Western Kentucky 61 82% 46
Florida Atlantic 18% 20
Troy 94 75% 37
Louisiana-Monroe 25% 22
New Mexico 104 34% 29
Utah State 66% 40
Louisiana Tech 23 96% 54
North Texas 4% 17
Maryland 112 37% 19
Wisconsin 63% 29
UNLV 101 71% 32
Hawai’i 29% 19
UTSA 112 70% 30
Old Dominion 30% 23
Ohio State 54 87% 36
Minnesota 13% 13
Texas 59 84% 39
Kansas 16% 17
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