2015 College Football Picks: Week 11

Sports

Below you will find the college football picks for week 11.

These are pretty self-explanatory. Each team has a projected score, which is adjusted for strength of schedule and home field advantage (except for games played on neutral fields). Each team also has an expected win probability, expressing how often you would expect team A to beat team B. Not all games are listed here, of course, as I am not collecting data on FCS teams.

If you are interested in seeing the ratings for each team, click here.

If you want to see last week’s picks, click here.

Week 10 Results

  • Straight Up: 43-16 (72.9%)
  • Against the Spread: 29-28-2 (50.9%)
  • Over/Under: 27-32 (45.8%)

Season Results

Straight Up

Win Probability Correct Wrong % Correct
50%-59.9% 81 49 62.3%
60%-69.9% 90 35 72.0%
70%-79.9% 96 26 78.7%
80%-89.9% 78 13 85.7%
90%-100% 57 4 93.4%
Total 402 127 76.0%

Against the Spread

259-253-17 (50.6%)

Over/Under

262-264-3 (49.8%)

Week 10 picks after the jump.

Remember, the GWR or “Game Watch Rating” is supposed to tell you whether or not a game should be worth watching. If you need a reminder on how to interpret or what the number takes into account, please go back and see the picks from week 1.

Now, the picks!

November 10 GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Ohio 101 71% 28
Kent State 29% 15
Central Michigan 135 43% 21
Toledo 57% 25
November 11 GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Buffalo 114 37% 21
Northern Illinois 63% 30
Western Michigan 137 41% 39
Bowling Green 59% 46
November 12 GWR Win Probability Projected Score
South Alabama 153 52% 37
Louisiana-Lafayette 48% 36
Georgia Tech 104 75% 43
Virginia Tech 25% 27
November 13 GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Colorado 65 18% 21
USC 82% 44
November 14 GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Arizona 121 35% 28
Utah 65% 40
Arizona State 95 27% 21
Washington 73% 36
UCLA 109 73% 39
Washington State 27% 24
Stanford 85 84% 54
Oregon 16% 28
California 49 87% 44
Oregon State 13% 16
Michigan State 109 70% 42
Maryland 30% 27
Northwestern 125 63% 24
Purdue 37% 18
Rutgers 119 37% 32
Nebraska 63% 42
Charlotte 112 34% 19
UTSA 66% 27
Marshall 117 66% 28
Florida International 34% 19
Old Dominion 87 83% 39
UTEP 17% 25
Cincinnati 93 74% 44
Tulsa 26% 26
Houston 154 60% 40
Memphis 40% 33
South Florida 163 49% 25
Temple 51% 26
Missouri 138 44% 16
BYU 56% 18
Air Force 159 54% 32
Utah State 46% 30
Boise State 70 81% 41
New Mexico 19% 19
Syracuse 94 26% 22
Clemson 74% 38
Duke 148 59% 28
Pittsburgh 41% 23
Florida State 132 68% 34
North Carolina State 32% 22
Louisville 106 70% 31
Virginia 30% 19
North Carolina 85 85% 42
Miami (Florida) 15% 22
Auburn 157 48% 24
Georgia 52% 26
LSU 124 76% 52
Arkansas 24% 35
Mississippi State 133 72% 26
Alabama 28% 18
South Carolina 100 31% 18
Florida 69% 29
Tennessee -8 99% 64
North Texas 1% 13
Vanderbilt 135 60% 18
Kentucky 40% 14
Baylor 185 53% 40.4
Oklahoma 47% 39.5
Iowa State 92 26% 25
Oklahoma State 74% 41
TCU 13 94% 62
Kansas 6% 18
Texas Tech 157 61% 45
Kansas State 39% 39
West Virginia 144 62% 33
Texas 38% 26
Illinois 117 32% 20
Ohio State 68% 28
Indiana 72 22% 17
Michigan 78% 39
Idaho 42 11% 23
Appalachian State 89% 51
Miami (Ohio) 121 39% 21
Akron 61% 26
Eastern Michigan 112 28% 32
Massachusetts 72% 37
Texas State 148 47% 34.5
Georgia State 53% 35.0
Florida Atlantic 112 37% 22
Middle Tennessee 63% 32
Army 129 62% 33
Tulane 38% 25
Louisiana-Monroe 122 39% 29
Arkansas State 61% 37
Troy 149 47% 32
Georgia Southern 53% 34
Navy 32 90% 63
SMU 10% 24
Rice 86 23% 30
Southern Mississippi 77% 47
Notre Dame 45 90% 45
Wake Forest 10% 16
Nevada 146 56% 30
San Jose State 44% 27
Colorado State 140 59% 32
UNLV 41% 26
Iowa 73 82% 31
Minnesota 18% 13
San Diego State 67 83% 40
Wyoming 17% 19
Hawai’i 137 60% 28
Fresno State 40% 26
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