2015 College Football Picks: Week 13

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Below you will find the college football picks for week 13.

These are pretty self-explanatory. Each team has a projected score, which is adjusted for strength of schedule and home field advantage (except for games played on neutral fields). Each team also has an expected win probability, expressing how often you would expect team A to beat team B. Not all games are listed here, of course, as I am not collecting data on FCS teams.

If you are interested in seeing the ratings for each team, click here.

If you want to see last week’s picks, click here.

Week 12 Results

  • Straight Up: 42-16 (72.4%)
  • Against the Spread: 31-27 (53.4%)
  • Over/Under: 33-24-1 (57.9%)

Season Results

Straight Up

Win Probability Correct Wrong % Correct
50%-59.9% 99 60 62.3%
60%-69.9% 117 43 73.1%
70%-79.9% 116 34 77.3%
80%-89.9% 92 16 85.2%
90%-100% 64 4 94.1%
Total 488 157 75.7%

Against the Spread

317-311-17 (50.5%)

Over/Under

326-315-4 (50.9%)

Week 13 picks after the jump.

Remember, the GWR or “Game Watch Rating” is supposed to tell you whether or not a game should be worth watching. If you need a reminder on how to interpret or what the number takes into account, please go back and see the picks from week 1.

Now, the picks!

November 24 Game Watch Rating Win Probability Projected Score
Ball State 53 24% 26
Bowling Green 76% 47
Northern Illinois 72 75% 37
Ohio 25% 20
November 26 Game Watch Rating Win Probability Projected Score
UCF 1 11% 15
South Florida 89% 46
Texas 167 50.3% 41
Texas Tech 49.7% 40
November 27 Game Watch Rating Win Probability Projected Score
Houston 141 42% 30
Navy 58% 35
Nebraska 142 44% 27
Iowa 56% 33
Pittsburgh 136 61% 34
Miami (Florida) 39% 26
Washington 96 74% 34
Washington State 26% 19
Tulane 141 48% 31
Tulsa 52% 35
Toledo 79 74% 41
Western Michigan 26% 23
Central Michigan 23 94% 49
Eastern Michigan 6% 22
Buffalo 123 62% 28
Massachusetts 38% 22
Akron 83 73% 28
Kent State 27% 13
Georgia State 145 55% 28
Troy 45% 26
Western Kentucky 129 65% 33
Marshall 35% 25
Arkansas 74 79% 30
Missouri 21% 16
Oregon 17 87% 53
Oregon State 13% 21
San Jose State 117 40% 27
Boise State 60% 34
TCU 166 43% 43
Baylor 57% 44
November 28 Game Watch Rating Win Probability Projected Score
Kansas 65 27% 23
Kansas State 73% 41
Oklahoma State 173 47% 34
Oklahoma 53% 36
West Virginia 94 71% 38
Iowa State 29% 24
Illinois 149 47% 15
Northwestern 53% 16
Michigan 153 61% 25
Ohio State 39% 19
Michigan State 146 60% 28
Penn State 40% 23
Minnesota 128 44% 18
Wisconsin 56% 22
Purdue 150 56% 37
Indiana 44% 33
Rutgers 146 46% 33
Maryland 54% 35
Louisiana Tech 153 57% 35
Southern Mississippi 43% 30
North Texas 106 76% 29
UTEP 24% 25
Auburn 106 33% 20
Alabama 67% 30
Florida 170 49.8% 21.6
Florida State 50.2% 21.8
Georgia Tech 163 57% 29
Georgia 43% 28
Kentucky 141 47% 25
Louisville 53% 27
LSU 129 67% 32
Texas A&M 33% 25
Mississippi State 172 52% 28.3
Mississippi 48% 27.9
South Carolina 80 30% 20
Clemson 70% 32
Tennessee 77 76% 22
Vanderbilt 24% 11
California 98 71% 41
Arizona State 29% 27
USC 146 64% 32
UCLA 36% 27
Utah 66 77% 35
Colorado 23% 17
Stanford 144 68% 39
Notre Dame 32% 31
Syracuse 148 49% 20
Boston College 51% 22
Wake Forest 135 46% 20
Duke 54% 24
North Carolina State 116 32% 30
North Carolina 68% 40
Virginia 154 51% 30
Virginia Tech 49% 29
San Diego State 86 72% 34
Nevada 28% 20
Appalachian State 38 83% 47
Louisiana-Lafayette 17% 22
New Mexico State 79 24% 32
Arkansas State 76% 49
New Mexico 153 49% 30.5
Air Force 51% 31.3
East Carolina 146 58% 35
Cincinnati 42% 30
Memphis 47 81% 59
SMU 19% 33
Temple 83 73% 27
Connecticut 27% 14
Old Dominion 137 45% 25
Florida Atlantic 55% 26
Georgia Southern 30 86% 51
South Alabama 14% 22
Wyoming 128 42% 31
UNLV 58% 36
UTSA 126 42% 25
Middle Tennessee 58% 31
Rice 124 53% 37
Charlotte 47% 25
Utah State 127 42% 27
BYU 58% 33
Idaho 150 52% 40
Texas State 48% 38
Fresno State 125 41% 29
Colorado State 59% 35
Hawai’i 122 63% 28
Louisiana-Monroe 37% 23
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