2015 College Football Picks: Bowl Games

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Below you will find the college football picks for every bowl game.

These are pretty self-explanatory. Each team has a projected score, which is adjusted for strength of schedule and home field advantage (except for games played on neutral fields). Each team also has an expected win probability, expressing how often you would expect team A to beat team B. Not all games are listed here, of course, as I am not collecting data on FCS teams.

If you are interested in seeing the ratings for each team, click here.

If you want to see last week’s picks, click here.

Week 14 & 15 Results

  • Straight Up: 11-5 (68.8%)
  • Against the Spread: 7-9 (43.8%)
  • Over/Under: 7-9 (43.8%)

Season Results

Straight Up

Win Probability Correct Wrong % Correct
50%-59.9% 119 73 62.0%
60%-69.9% 130 47 73.4%
70%-79.9% 129 38 77.2%
80%-89.9% 100 17 85.5%
90%-100% 65 4 94.2%
Total 543 179 75.2%

Against the Spread

353-352-18 (50.1%)

Over/Under

362-356-5 (50.4%)

Bowl picks after the jump.

Remember, the GWR or “Game Watch Rating” is supposed to tell you whether or not a game should be worth watching. If you need a reminder on how to interpret or what the number takes into account, please go back and see the picks from week 1.

Now, the picks!

December 19      
Gildan New Mexico Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Arizona 127 57% 39
New Mexico 43% 34
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
BYU 154 55% 27
Utah 45% 26
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Ohio 55 29% 22
Appalachian State 71% 36
Autonation Cure Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
San Jose State 145 45% 29
Georgia State 55% 31
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Arkansas State 133 44% 35
Louisiana Tech 56% 39
December 21      
Miami Beach Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Western Kentucky 154 46% 33
South Florida 54% 38
December 22      
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Akron 125 43% 26
Utah State 57% 31
Marmot Boca Raton Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Temple 164 51% 24
Toledo 49% 23
December 23      
SDCCU Poinsettia Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Boise State 165 51% 27
Northern Illinois 49% 26
GoDaddy Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Georgia Southern 102 36% 32
Bowling Green 64% 41
December 24      
Popeye’s Bahamas Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Middle Tennessee 161 49% 34
Western Michigan 51% 35
Hawai’i Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
San Diego State 144 55% 31
Cincinnati 45% 28
December 26      
St. Petersburg Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Connecticut 121 43% 17
Marshall 57% 20
Hyundai Sun Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Miami (Florida) 149 46% 28
Washington State 54% 31
Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Washington 75 70% 35
Southern Mississippi 30% 21
New Era Pinstripe Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Indiana 143 46% 31
Duke 54% 33
Camping World Independence Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Tulsa 80 33% 27
Virginia Tech 67% 38
Foster Farms Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
UCLA 117 60% 32
Nebraska 40% 25
December 28      
Military Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Pittsburgh 131 40% 30
Navy 60% 35
Quick Lane Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Central Michigan 127 44% 23
Minnesota 56% 26
December 29      
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
California 80 68% 42
Air Force 32% 30
Russell Athletic Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
North Carolina 157 60% 44
Baylor 40% 38
Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Nevada 139 46% 28
Colorado State 54% 31
Advocare V100 Texas Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
LSU 137 58% 49
Texas Tech 42% 41
December 30      
Birmingham Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Auburn 167 48% 31.7
Memphis 52% 31.9
Belk Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
North Carolina State 99 35% 26
Mississippi State 65% 37
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Texas A&M 165 50.4% 24
Louisville 49.6% 23
Holiday Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
USC 155 56% 25.0
Wisconsin 44% 24.9
December 31      
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Houston 90 29% 21
Florida State 71% 34
Capital One Orange Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Oklahoma 107 77% 37
Clemson 23% 27
Goodyear Cotton Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Michigan State 108 33% 20
Alabama 67% 30
January 1      
Outback Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Northwestern 104 36% 16
Tennessee 64% 21
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Michigan 136 60% 23
Florida 40% 19
Battle Frog Fiesta Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Notre Dame 126 35% 25
Ohio State 65% 35
Rose Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Iowa 175 49% 29
Stanford 51% 30
All State Sugar Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Oklahoma State 123 32% 29
Mississippi 68% 39
January 2      
Tax Slayer Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Penn State 128 41% 19
Georgia 59% 24
Auto Zone Liberty Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Kansas State 87 31% 34
Arkansas 69% 46
Valero Alamo Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
TCU 160 54% 44
Oregon 46% 39
Motel 6 Cactus Bowl GWR Win Probability Projected Score
West Virginia 101 64% 33
Arizona State 36% 24
January 11      
National Championship GWR Win Probability Projected Score
Oklahoma (Projected*) 150 68% 29
Alabama (Projected*) 32% 24
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