2015 College Football Picks: Week 6

Sports

Below you will find the college football picks for week 6.

These are pretty self-explanatory. Each team has a projected score, which is adjusted for strength of schedule and home field advantage (except for games played on neutral fields). Each team also has an expected win probability, expressing how often you would expect team A to beat team B. Not all games are listed here, of course, as I am not collecting data on FCS teams.

Additionally, since we are still early in the season and not many games have actually been played, remember some of these are still influenced by preseason projections. The projections will fade out once each team has played 5 games.

If you are interested in seeing the ratings for each team, click here.

If you want to see last week’s picks, click here.

Week 5 Results

  • Straight Up: 43-15 (74.1%)
  • Against the Spread: 30-28 (51.7%)
  • Over/Under: 25-32-1 (43.9%)

Season Results

Straight Up

Win Probability Correct Wrong % Correct
50%-59.9% 41 23 64.1%
60%-69.9% 39 13 75.0%
70%-79.9% 39 14 73.6%
80%-89.9% 40 6 87.0%
90%-100% 36 1 97.3%
Total 195 57 77.4%

Against the Spread

122-120-10 (50.4%)

Over/Under

129-121-2 (51.6%)

Week 6 picks after the jump.

2015 College Football Picks: Week 5

Sports

Below you will find the college football picks for week 5.

These are pretty self-explanatory. Each team has a projected score, which is adjusted for strength of schedule and home field advantage (except for games played on neutral fields). Each team also has an expected win probability, expressing how often you would expect team A to beat team B. Not all games are listed here, of course, as I am not collecting data on FCS teams.

Additionally, since we are still early in the season and not many games have actually been played, remember these are still influenced by preseason projections. The projections will fade out once each team has played 5 games.

If you are interested in seeing the ratings for each team, click here.

If you want to see last week’s picks, click here.

Week 4 Results

  • Straight Up: 43-9 (82.7%)
  • Against the Spread: 30-20-2 (60%)
  • Over/Under: 25-26-1 (49%)

Season Results

Straight Up

Win Probability Correct Wrong % Correct
50%-59.9% 27 17 61.4%
60%-69.9% 31 8 79.5%
70%-79.9% 30 12 71.4%
80%-89.9% 31 4 88.6%
90%-100% 33 1 97.1%
Total 152 42 78.4%

Against the Spread

92-92-10 (50%)

Over/Under

104-89-1 (53.9%)

Week 5 picks after the jump.

2015 College Football Picks: Week 4

Sports

Below you will find the college football picks for week 4.

These are pretty self-explanatory. Each team has a projected score, which is adjusted for strength of schedule and home field advantage (except for games played on neutral fields). Each team also has an expected win probability, expressing how often you would expect team A to beat team B. Not all games are listed here, of course, as I am not collecting data on FCS teams.

Additionally, since we are still early in the season and very few games have actually been played, remember these are still influenced by preseason projections. The projections will fade out once each team has played 5 games.

If you are interested in seeing the ratings for each team, click here.

If you want to see last week’s picks, click here.

Week 3 Results

  • Straight Up: 37-15 (71.2%)
  • Against the Spread: 18-31-3 (36.7%)
  • Over/Under: 30-22 (57.7%)

Season Results

Straight Up

Win Probability Correct Wrong % Correct
50%-59.9% 19 11 63.3%
60%-69.9% 21 5 80.8%
70%-79.9% 20 12 62.5%
80%-89.9% 20 4 83.3%
90%-100% 29 1 96.7%
Total 109 33 76.8%

Against the Spread

62-72-8 (46.3%)

Over/Under

78-64 (54.9%)

Week 4 picks after the jump.

2015 College Football Picks: Week 3

Sports

Below you will find the college football picks for week 3.

These are pretty self-explanatory. Each team has a projected score, which is adjusted for strength of schedule and home field advantage (except for games played on neutral fields). Each team also has an expected win probability, expressing how often you would expect team A to beat team B. Not all games are listed here, of course, as I am not collecting data on FCS teams.

Additionally, since we are still early in the season and very few games have actually been played, remember these are made up mostly of preseason projections. The projections will slowly fade out as the season goes on.

If you are interested in seeing the ratings for each team, click here.

If you want to see last week’s picks, click here.

Week 2 Results

  • Straight Up: 38-13 (74.5%)
  • Against the Spread: 23-25-3 (47.9%)
  • Over/Under: 29-22 (56.9%)

Season Results

Straight Up

Win Probability Correct Wrong % Correct
50%-59.9% 13 5 72.2%
60%-69.9% 14 3 82.4%
70%-79.9% 12 7 63.2%
80%-89.9% 14 2 87.5%
90%-100% 19 1 95.0%
Total 72 18 80.0%

Against the Spread

44-41-5 (51.8%)

Over/Under

48-42 (53.3%)

Week 3 picks after the jump.

2015 College Football Top 25: Post-Week 2

Sports

Below are your top 25 college football teams after the first week of the season, according to THOR+.

For more complete and detailed rankings of all 128 FBS teams, click here.

Confused? Check the glossary.

Rank Team Coach Conference Offense+ Defense+ Special Teams+ THOR+
1 Mississippi Hugh Freeze SEC 165 149 100 154
2 Georgia Tech Paul Johnson ACC 169 126 94 148
3 Alabama Nick Saban SEC 153 151 96 147
4 Ohio State Urban Meyer Big Ten 152 135 104 144
5 USC Steve Sarkisian Pac-12 153 145 98 144
6 Georgia Mark Richt SEC 150 129 118 142
7 LSU Les Miles SEC 140 149 116 138
8 Texas A&M Kevin Sumlin SEC 144 133 99 138
9 TCU Gary Patterson Big 12 136 141 116 135
10 Notre Dame Brian Kelly Independent 138 139 105 135
11 Kansas State Bill Snyder Big 12 117 149 146 133
12 Florida State Jimbo Fisher ACC 133 134 123 132
13 Wisconsin Paul Chryst Big Ten 139 127 131 131
14 Oklahoma Bob Stoops Big 12 133 137 99 131
15 UCLA Jim Mora Pac-12 118 152 107 131
16 Michigan State Mark Dantonio Big Ten 139 130 64 129
17 Tennessee Butch Jones SEC 140 118 99 129
18 Oregon Mark Helfrich Pac-12 151 103 150 128
19 Baylor Art Briles Big 12 156 93 96 128
20 Arkansas Bret Bielema SEC 124 131 98 126
21 Auburn Gus Malzahn SEC 122 131 128 126
22 West Virginia Dana Holgorsen Big 12 107 144 126 126
23 Stanford David Shaw Pac-12 109 152 94 126
24 Clemson Dabo Swinney ACC 113 138 91 125
25 Miami (Florida) Al Golden ACC 113 127 149 124

2015 College Football Picks: Week 2

Sports

Below you will find the college football picks for week 2.

These are pretty self-explanatory. Each team has a projected score, which is adjusted for strength of schedule and home field advantage (except for games played on neutral fields). Each team also has an expected win probability, expressing how often you would expect team A to beat team B. Not all games are listed here, of course, as I am not collecting data on FCS teams.

Additionally, since we are still early in the season and very few games have actually been played, remember these are made up mostly of preseason projections. The projections will slowly fade out as the season goes on.

If you are interested in seeing the ratings for each team, click here.

If you want to see last week’s picks, click here.

Week 1 Results

Straight Up

Win Probability Correct Wrong % Correct
50%-59.9% 8 0 100.00%
60%-69.9% 4 1 80.00%
70%-79.9% 7 4 63.64%
80%-89.9% 6 0 100.00%
90%-100% 9 0 100.00%
Total 34 5 87.18%

Against the Spread

21-16-2 (56.8%)

Over/Under

I’m also keeping track of over/under this season.

19-20 (48.7%)

Week 2 picks after the jump.

2015 College Football Top 25: Post-Week 1

Sports

Below are your top 25 college football teams after the first week of the season, according to THOR+.

For more complete and detailed rankings of all 128 FBS teams, click here.

Confused? Check the glossary.

Rank Team Coach Conference Offense+ Defense+ Special Teams+ THOR+
1 Ohio State Urban Meyer Big Ten 177 123 99 151
2 Alabama Nick Saban SEC 165 146 105 150
3 Mississippi Hugh Freeze SEC 149 157 96 149
4 Georgia Mark Richt SEC 164 112 117 142
5 Texas A&M Kevin Sumlin SEC 145 136 127 141
6 Notre Dame Brian Kelly Independent 135 156 87 140
7 Arkansas Bret Bielema SEC 152 131 88 139
8 Baylor Art Briles Big 12 160 111 99 139
9 USC Steve Sarkisian Pac-12 149 138 106 138
10 LSU Les Miles SEC 139 148 120 136
11 Georgia Tech Paul Johnson ACC 150 117 109 135
12 Oklahoma Bob Stoops Big 12 136 142 89 134
13 UCLA Jim Mora Pac-12 137 138 102 134
14 Florida State Jimbo Fisher ACC 134 138 116 133
15 Wisconsin Paul Chryst Big Ten 147 125 125 133
16 Auburn Gus Malzahn SEC 139 128 136 133
17 Oregon Mark Helfrich Pac-12 156 109 132 133
18 TCU Gary Patterson Big 12 128 141 126 131
19 Kansas State Bill Snyder Big 12 128 132 144 130
20 Michigan State Mark Dantonio Big Ten 138 133 77 129
21 Miami (Florida) Al Golden ACC 112 134 136 127
22 West Virginia Dana Holgorsen Big 12 105 148 130 127
23 Boise State Bryan Harsin Mountain West 120 137 70 126
24 Mississippi State Dan Mullen SEC 117 134 108 125
25 Missouri Gary Pinkel SEC 106 149 124 125

2015 College Football Picks: Week 1

Sports

College football is back! Woo!

Per usual, the college football picks for week 1 are below.

These are pretty self-explanatory. Each team has a projected score, which is adjusted for strength of schedule and home field advantage (except for games played on neutral fields). Each team also has an expected win probability, expressing how often you would expect team A to beat team B. Not all games are listed here, of course, as I am not collecting data on FCS teams.

Additionally, since no games have actually been played yet, remember these are made up entirely of preseason projections. The projections will slowly fade out as the season goes on.

If you are interested in seeing the ratings for each team, click here.

Last Season’s Results

Straight Up

Win Probability Correct Wrong % Correct
50%-59.9% 123 80 60.59%
60%-69.9% 122 72 62.89%
70%-79.9% 120 39 75.47%
80%-89.9% 104 20 83.87%
90%-100% 71 6 92.21%
Total 540 217 71.33%

Against the Spread

381-360-18 (51.3%)

Week 1 picks after the jump.

Notes on Society of the Spectacle: Chapters 8 and 9

Society

Chapter 8: “Negation and Consumption Within Culture”

#180 “Culture is the general sphere of knowledge and of representations of the lived.” Once culture separates out on its own, it becomes imperialist and ends up suppressing its independence and eventually negating itself.

#181 Cultural development is a struggle between tradition and innovation, but can only be carried out with the permanent victory of innovation. Innovation can only be carried out by historical movement, but the “totality” of the historical movement tends to overshadow its cultural beliefs and suppresses any separation.

Hegel, Power, and Debt

Society

A couple of months ago BBC Radio 4 put out a great series of short episodes on the history of debt. Noted anthropologist and anarchist, David Graeber, narrated the series and went through the definition of debt, its historical development, and basically analyzed why we put so much emphasis on following through on our debt obligations.

In the very first episode of the series, he made a great point when he asked why we feel that debt is a social contract that must never be broken. He points out that politicians make social contracts with the citizens who vote for them and those always get broken, so what makes debt a social contract that must never be broken? Surely we don’t feel that the relationship between debtor and creditor is more important than the relationship between the people and their government, do we? I bet if that were a question polled to the majority of people in the United States or even around the world, the answer would be a resounding “No!”

So why do we value the principle of debt more than we value the principle of something like governance?