2013 College Football Preview: The SEC

Below are projected SEC team ratings for the 2013 season. Keep in mind that projected wins and losses are made to reflect what would happen if every team played an average schedule. Most teams don’t play an average schedule, so actual wins and losses won’t look like this once the season plays out. Instead, these numbers are trying to tell us who the best teams are, regardless of the difficulty of their schedule. Therefore, instead of seeing this as a prediction that the top team in the SEC will go 10-2 this year, think of it as meaning this upcoming Alabama team would be projected to go 10-2 in 12 games playing an average schedule.

For projections for all Division I football teams, click here.

Overall

Ranking	SEC	5 Yr. Improve	Ret. Starters	Proj. Off+	Proj. Def+	Proj. Total+	Proj. W%	Proj. W	Proj. L
1	Alabama	107	97	123	130	127	0.864	10.36	1.64
2	Georgia	101	97	127	105	116	0.727	8.73	3.27
3	Mississippi	104	134	108	122	115	0.718	8.62	3.38
4	Texas A&M	105	74	124	102	113	0.691	8.30	3.70
5	LSU	98	97	108	117	113	0.689	8.27	3.73
6	South Carolina	103	89	106	114	110	0.656	7.87	4.13
7	Florida	99	82	98	120	109	0.640	7.68	4.32
8	Vanderbilt	102	97	105	111	108	0.622	7.46	4.54
9	Mississippi State	103	97	106	109	107	0.617	7.40	4.60
10	Tennessee	97	97	105	98	101	0.543	6.51	5.49
11	Missouri	96	89	96	106	101	0.540	6.48	5.52
12	Auburn	96	112	88	107	97	0.492	5.90	6.10
13	Kentucky	96	97	92	98	95	0.465	5.59	6.41
14	Arkansas	95	82	87	101	94	0.445	5.34	6.66

Offense

Ranking	SEC	Passing	Rushing	Scoring	Turnovers	Blocking	Proj. Off	Proj. Off+
1	Georgia	120	131	127	117	114	124	127
2	Texas A&M	109	130	122	107	106	117	124
3	Alabama	125	105	121	115	96	115	123
4	LSU	100	94	102	112	99	101	108
5	Mississippi	108	104	108	92	98	104	108
6	South Carolina	113	85	105	103	95	101	106
7	Mississippi State	103	106	105	108	109	106	106
8	Tennessee	87	107	105	91	115	101	105
9	Vanderbilt	97	102	102	109	91	101	105
10	Florida	98	93	89	104	73	92	98
11	Missouri	98	75	84	93	85	87	96
12	Kentucky	89	94	78	104	93	89	92
13	Auburn	90	99	81	72	80	85	88
14	Arkansas	88	76	83	62	92	80	87

Defense

Ranking	SEC	Passing	Rushing	Scoring	Turnovers Forced	Pressure	Proj. Def	Proj. Def+
1	Alabama	117	130	132	119	111	125	130
2	Mississippi	106	124	113	121	130	117	122
3	Florida	101	107	115	115	104	109	120
4	LSU	107	110	112	121	101	111	117
5	South Carolina	102	108	111	103	105	107	114
6	Vanderbilt	115	101	115	90	103	107	111
7	Mississippi State	99	103	107	129	95	107	109
8	Auburn	98	95	103	94	104	99	107
9	Missouri	91	95	94	102	110	96	106
10	Georgia	96	97	104	105	91	100	105
11	Texas A&M	96	96	103	75	92	95	102
12	Arkansas	93	103	94	80	108	95	101
13	Kentucky	94	103	93	84	97	94	98
14	Tennessee	102	96	89	92	100	94	98

Confused? Check the glossary.

1. Alabama– Big surprise, huh? Nick Saban doesn’t rebuild at Alabama, he just reloads. And this year is no exception.

2. Georgia– This Georgia offense looks poised to put a lot of points on the board in 2013. And that’s a good thing, considering this Georgia defense looks bound to give up quite a few, as well.

3. Mississippi– Hugh Freeze’s Rebels finished 14% above average last year, are trending upward in improvement (and in recruiting), and have the most returning starters of any SEC team this year. As a result, the numbers really like them to make some noise in the conference and on the national stage this year.

4. Texas A&M– Similar to Georgia, this year’s version of Texas A&M is going to need an explosive offense to make up for an inexperienced defense. In addition to hoping the defense can develop quickly, the Aggies are also hoping that Johnny Manziel can stay healthy and out of trouble with the NCAA.

5. LSU– The Tigers have an above average number of starters returning on offense, but they are going to be fielding a pretty inexperienced defense this year. Fortunately for them, LSU always seems to have a stifling defense under Les Miles. They should be a good team this year, but just not crystal football good.

6. South Carolina– New year, same old Steve Spurrier-led South Carolina team. In other words, mediocre offense paired with a legitimate defense. An interesting transformation from his days at Florida.

7. Florida– Let’s get this straight, this Florida offense is probably going to look much worse than they are. Don’t get me wrong, they don’t project to be very good. But because of the conference they play in, they are going to look downright ugly, when they are probably just a little below average. If there is a bright side to all of this, their defense will probably help keep them in a lot of games. If you’re a Florida fan, just brace yourself for a lot of low-scoring slugfests this season.

8. Vanderbilt– James Franklin has this team moving in the right direction, and the numbers do like the upcoming product he’s going to be trotting out onto the field. However, these projections don’t take into account recent events that have occurred off the field, so adjust the numbers and expectations accordingly.

9. Mississippi State– Mississippi State is yet another team on the up-and-up, who would no doubt benefit from not playing in the SEC. They are a prime candidate to be a team who is better than their final record indicates this year.

10. Tennessee– First year coach, Butch Jones, has experience returning at the running back and offensive line positions, so he should be able to capitalize on that. He also has a good number of guys coming back on the defensive side of the ball, but, regrettably, last year’s Volunteer defense simply wasn’t very good.  It’ll be interesting to see what Jones can do in his first year at the helm. However, he is going to need more than one season to turn this program around.

11. Missouri– Missouri is on a downward trend under Gary Pinkel lately, declining by an average of 4% each year since 2007. The numbers like the defense to be an above average unit this year, but not so much the offense. The wildcard for this offense, though, is probably Dorial Green-Beckham. If he develops into the talent that everyone expects him to, he could single-handedly make this offense decent, and make the team better than expected.

12. Auburn– Other than the Cam Newton season, Auburn has been going in the wrong direction since 2007, hence why the Tigers fired Gene Chizik. The defense looks to have a good number of guys back this year, but the offense does not. Gus Malzahn may have a reputation for being an offensive guru, but it will probably take more than one year to get everything off and running.

13. Kentucky– The Wildcats have a lot of momentum going for them on the recruiting trail right now. Too bad that isn’t going to do much to improve the product they are putting on the field this year…

14. Arkansas– Brett Bielema takes over a team that was not particularly good at the game of football last season, which is too bad because that’s kind of what football teams do, you know: play football. Bielema’s squad also returns 18% fewer starters than the average FBS team in 2012, and they still play in the SEC. Basically, don’t expect much out of this Razorback team this season.